But I Want To Be Wrong!

A lot of people still think that the upcoming Baath conference will be bringing with it some serious positive change. They still think that President has it in him. The absence of immediate alternative to the current regime and its President continue to inspire some hope in them that things are bound to take a turn for the better. This regime and this President simply have no choice but to brig about some change. 

The question of whether they have what it takes to produce a semblance for a new vision for the country doesn’t seem to bother them much. For, as long as there is no alternative, whatever little changes brought about by the regime and the President is bound to lead to something that can be considered reform, in a few years time.

I don’t know what is more dismal: my vision of impending doom, or this “cautiously optimistic” one? But I really have to ask here…

Have our noses become so clogged up that we cannot tell the difference between the winds of change and a chronic case of halitosis, or a collective breaking of the wind on top of our heads, a wet anal sigh of relief of sorts?

Waiting for a deus ex machina to come and save the day is in itself problematic, but to expect the arrival of a deus ex diaboli is simply ridiculous. We are waiting for our criminals to become saints and our idiots to become geniuses, and we are expecting this to happen overnight too.

The line of “reasoning” involved here seems to go as follows: “these people can’t be that stupid, they must know that they need to change. They must still be capable of producing something. There is no alternative to them, and there is no alternative for them but to change in order to soften international pressures on them.”

I think that we are losing sight of several important considerations here:

  • The regime is very fragmented, but each group in itself is weak and views the others as competitors. As such, no one is trying to take charge. Everybody is on a wait-and-see mode. The regime is surviving by default.
  • The central authorities have shown over the last few years that their grip on the country is growing rather weak, and that while they are still capable of cracking down, holding the country together is quite the different story.
  • There are no intelligent people around in the upper ranks of the regime. The non-Baathist reformers that have been brought in act only as advisors. They have no real say in the decision-making process itself. The decisions are thus left to the morons in charge.
  • The Americans, while they may not invade at this stage, will continue to pressure and dabble in Syria’s affairs.
  • And the Street is boiling, or am I the only one seeing this?

But here, perhaps, we have to note that the Street is not primarily represented by the Middle Class anymore. As such when people say that the President is popular, I think they are often referring to the sentiments of the continuously shrinking Middle Class, that is, to people who still have something to lose, and, are therefore, still inclined to believe that the President can do it, that he can still save the day. They want to believe.

The poor, on the other hand, who represent the majority at this stage, seem to be beginning to realize that the President is neither capable nor even interested in improving their lot. And they seem to be going past the frustration stage into a state of anger. This bodes ill for the stability of the country. Indeed, the days of open rioting in major cities like Damascus, Aleppo, and Lattakia are fast approaching.

6 thoughts on “But I Want To Be Wrong!

  1. Ammar,I would like to hear your reaction to the regime’s latest statement that all intelligence-sharing with the US has been cut off. I really doubt that all that much sharing was actually happening anyway, but how does this bode for relations in the immediate future?Thank you for your sanity.

  2. As DaKruser asked, I’d be very interested in your perspective on the latest news of Syria and the US severing ties. It seems like this would only hurt Asad worse.

  3. Imagine being transported 20,000 years into the past- no roads, no iron, nor wheel. A modern human which knows of spacetravel, cell phones, religions, and the New York stock exchange, living in world not dominated humans and their technology but yet compared other animals, the humans are still very capable predator with some humans engaged in a major sport of killing large herd animals with their high tech spears and social organization. Lions and bears [oh my!] may perhaps be still feared by most humans but they can hunted and killed by determined humans- they are not forces like volcanos or asteriod impacts, rather they are more like bad weather, possibly managable. Now what does a 21st Century human fear or want to do in pre-bronze world; where in the world does he or she want to live and do? Unless one happens to be an Austrailia aborgine or knows the language, no humans on the planet speaks any language that you could know or be vaguely familar with. South and North America may or may not have any humans living there. There are no cities, anywhere. There could be no farms anywhere: people are on the move, they are hunting and gathering, trading, engaged in warfare, and having various kind rituals involving music and costumes used to tell the story of who they are, which purpose is probably largely concerned with trading and warfare. This is assuming these people are living in areas where humans of one tribe meet other humans of other tribes somewhat frequently, say around every week or so. Probably most human on the planet 20,000 years ago weren’t living this close to one another. And probably our 21st Century human, couldn’t find these humans easily probably as likely as he could find a wolf and they would be about friendly and talkative as a wolf. If our 21 Century human wanted interact humans probably the best chance would lie with meeting humans which were big game hunters, here you would large groups of humans perhaps a 100 or more. These people would of course be dangerous, probably loud, like to party, and would probably commonly use sign language. They would have some form of a religion and various rituals. They hunted Mammoths, they followed herds into North America. They hunted other herd animals including horses, which at some point they learn to ride. And they probably first to domesticated the wolf. Perhaps, a 21 Century human riding a horse with wolf on a leash into one of these settlement would be similar to Alien from outer space landing on Earth.What’s this got to do with Syrian? I thinking that an American traveling in Iraq with danger of mad fool terrorists must be quite an adventure. I wonder how many are doing it merely for adventure what with the lack of the general wild these days.The problem with Syria it is filled with organized crime, and what I mean by organize crime is a bunch people getting money for nothing- other than using force to get maintain their monopolistic systems. That really doesn’t matter as much as there are so damn inefficent- which this kind of system always is. I don’t have a problem with “money for nothing and chicks for free”, but at least the rockers create a song or two, and more important they don’t prevent everyone else from having a good time. They are boring everyone to death. Syria doesn’t need a revolution, it needs to lighten up and have a good time.

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