Waiting for the Next Move!

The recent declarations byNasrallah, Ahmadinejad and Assad mark a noticeable decrease in the levels of bellicosity and belligerence in comparison to their erstwhile discourse. Indeed, none of these men has backed down from his declared stands on the all too important issues of resistance and the nuclear capabilities, but their statements did, nonetheless, contain some startling reversals of recent positions and attitudes.

For when Ahmadinejad declares that Iran does not pose a threat “to anybody, not even to the Zionist regime,” a mere few weeks after he had called for its destruction, one really has to wonder as to the real significance of this apparent contradiction. Is it only meant to buy time, or has the Mullah establishment opted to adopt a softer more pragmatic stand vis-à-vis the Zionist entity, on the basis of their own assessment of the results of Hezbollah War?

And when Nasrallah himself declares that he would not have ordered the capture of the two Israeli soldiers had he known that the Israeli response would be so destructive, that the South will not witness any manifest sign of militarism while the Lebanese army is there, and that Hezbollah is not preparing for new showdown with the Israelis, this definitely marks an important acknowledgement of the changing realities in Lebanon as a result of the recent “victory.”

And seeing that Bashar had already attempted to back down from his recent dismissal and assault on Arab leaders, one really cannot ignore the emerging pattern here. The key figures in the Resistance Alliance are clearly acting in unison and in accordance with a clearly laid out strategy drawn by the Iranians.

The Alliance is moving to capitalize on its perceived victory by trying to sound more soft, reasonable and pragmatic and, hence, appealing, to some segments of the policy-making community in each one of the key countries involved in the current crisis, especially the United States. The move is designed, naturally, to buy time, enough time, two to three more years to be specific, to produce that first bomb, to conduct that first test, and to change the entire dynamics of the situation and allow for the final emergence of a full-fledged regional power, complete with satellite states and all, that has literally and figuratively been dying to do so ever since that blessed revolution of ’79, if not really before, after all, the Shah had had his regional dreams and ambitions too.

Will the world allow for this emergence to take place, or will it seek to delay or even abort it once and for all? The next few weeks might carry a semblance of an answer. But for now, the momentum seems to be on the side of the Alliance.


We have just reactivated the “Virtual Syria” (Arabic) blog on the Tharwa Community, and just launched the “Whereto, Syria?” (Arabic and English) blog.

5 thoughts on “Waiting for the Next Move!

  1. I agree, they are buying time, but they are fooling no one. Having said that, I have no problem with Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. She is surrounded by other nuclear powers such as Turkey (through NATO) and Pakistan. However, the Mullahs can keep their religeous and political doctrines to themselves. Syria’s alliance with Iran benefits only the regime. The alliance has nothing to offer the Syrian people and it is therefore going nowhere.New post You cannot teach a donkey to play the piano

  2. I am not so sure that time is in favour of the Iran/Syria/HA/Hamas axis. It seems to me that there is a golden opportunity to at least marginalise HA in Lebanon and for Fatah to regain some strength in the Palestinian authority. The Arab League should continue the pressure on isolating the Bashar dictatorship and the Security Council will have to be creative in limiting the Iranian ambitions. If the cards are played right, I see a glimmer of hope at the end of this tunnel. Maybe we will finally see a possible end to this unholy axis.

  3. Phillip I, The world cannot afford any more nuclear powers, not Iran, not N. Korea not anyone. What we really need is to step back from the abyss by adopting a program of de- nuclearization by everyone that possesses nuclear power. Unless the big powers start a program of giving up their nuclear weapons then I am afraid that there will be no convincing logic to either stop or even limit proliferation.

  4. Ghassa Karami cant see any opportunity for at least fatah to regain strenght.the palestenians who were silently killed while the world was busy with the recent war , are now hyphnotisized and blinded , as much as the rest of the arab world ,by what they grasp as the “victory” of hizballah.nasrallah/najad are the new “heros” of the middle east , their posters are everywhere and this fundamental axes will only get strenghtend , after all those groups are fed by the public support.

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