Word to the Mother!

Well, things are moving at a pretty rapid pace at this stage. The UN investigative committee did not waste any time and has just upped the ante way up than anyone would have expected a mere few days ago. Gone is all the foolish talk about a deal between the US and the regime, or… are the French (and the Saudis) forcing the hands of the Bush Administration on this? Let’s not forget here folks, the Syria regime’s real antagonists have always been the French. 


Be that as it may, the plot continues to thicken in Syria, and things are bound to heat up at the UN Security Council soon, for the Assad will never accept to be interviewed, especially under such circumstances.

The people are sure to rally behind Assad, for now. But one cannot count too much on people’s loyalties to authoritarian regimes – they tend to be skin deep, no matter how much nationalistic passion the regime tries to whip up. For under authoritarian systems, the people, very much like their ruling cliques, tend to put their own “narrow” interests first. They won’t go down for the regime. Their show of support is just that – a show put for the benefit of all those idiots who sincerely want and need to believe. More importantly, it comes as a much needed layer of protection. These are feverish times, and until someone learn to break through the barrier of fear and rally people to the real cause (which is freedom from oppression, in case anyone has forgotten), people will have more to fear from their regime, than they do from the international community with its vague threats of sanctions. Sanctions will not hurt you immediately, but the regime can. So, long live the regime, and down with the sanctions.

Unfortunately though, there are a lot of idealists out there, and they are usually young and educated – rather, semi-educated. Being idealists and all that, these unfortunate fools will undoubtedly rally behind the regime thinking that they are in fact rallying to save the homeland from the clutches of the Zionists and the neo-imperialists and their fifth columnists lackeys in the opposition. Since, these educated idiots, who have always represented the perennial fodder for all the stupid ideological wars in the world, do not usually come in too a small number, they can actually give this besieged regime enough of a boost at this stage to help weather the storm.

So, unless the opposition learns how to address these young well-intentioned brainwashed enthusiasts, and nullify the effects of so many years of brainwashing, the above developments may not as significant as we want them to be.

Transitions need to be managed well in order to succeed. Divine management of these matters tend to drag out and they are often too mysterious for my taste. I prefer the messiness of the human factor.

A less heretical take might assert that divine management can only succeed through the aegis of human actors. Take your pick, but act now.

7 thoughts on “Word to the Mother!

  1. Even if Assad can rally the people, it is still hallow. Look at all the marches in honor of Saddam before the invasion. However, it were some of those same people who help tear his statue down cause they decided to throw their lot in with the Americans. Im sure there are Syrians who are not interested in rallying around a dead duck which is what Assad has become. Assad cant buy anyone off the way Saddam did simply because Syria doesnt have the oil resources like Iraq does and if their is no oil contracts involved then the French, Russians, & Chinese will be in no rush to save Assad from Dubya, so therefore I am just gonna sit back and watch Baby Assad sweat this one out.

  2. I know the position of those you describe all too well, as I’ve been going through it for the past several years (and perhaps I still am to some extent?). Most important is to remember that they are, indeed, well-intentioned. Reflecting back I can say I’ve adopted some pretty stupid positions in the past, and still do, but I’d like to think they have been free of malice…

  3. Support for dictatorships/authoritarianism is rarely if ever more than skin deep. Witness the quick collapse of the Soviet Union and all of its Eastern Europian satellites. Even the Lebanese example is one that demonstrates the point. What appears to be unanimous support for the dictator rests on fear, fear to speak truth to power, fear to dissent and fear to take a stand. There is always a tipping point when citizens loose that fear factor. When that happens then there is no turning back. In Lebanon it was the assassination of Mr. Harriri that acted as a catalyst. I bet the the Syrian regime and its agents have not figured out this one yet. Why did the people ris ewhen they did? The Lebanese populace never showed any inclination that they were ready to oppose seriously their tormentors. But resist they did. Itrust the the same will happen in Syria. I have no idea what the catalyst will be this time. But I can assure you that an event will take place and people will loose their fear. When that happens, and it will, then watch out.

  4. Indeed Ghassan, I think 1559 was the real beginning of this crisis, and I believe is still gives the UN Security Council a broad mandate to help reshape the Lebanese internal scene, and by implications, the Syrian internal scene as well. This regime is cornered on all side. Bashar will not cooperate with the UN Team. A new showdown is looming, but Bashar and the regime are in afar weaker position now.The Catalyst, the catalyst. I cannot speculate what the catalyst can be either. But, I know that catalysts are created when a certain momentum continues to build up, we need to continue to pile up pressures, all sorts of pressures, internal and external, the catalyst will work itself out.

  5. Question for all:With the way things are in the ME today, would Hafez had killed Hariri? If yes why, and if no why not.

  6. Hafiz did issue his more than fair share of assassination orders, that’s for sure. But, had he been still alive and well, I think he would have found a different formula for dealing with Hariri. I think he had a better sense of the chaning times, than the people around him.

  7. Of course he did Ammar, the Soviets backed Syria but when they collapesed Assad Sr backed Bush Sr in removing Saddam from Kuwait. Assad Sr unlike his son was much better at being able to read the writing on the wall. I personally think Assad Sr would have once again backed Bush Jr, as long as he did help out in Iraq and eased off Lebanon.

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